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Thursday, July 11, 2002

On Double Dip Business Bound
Stephen Roach described on his Global Forum piece yesterday that talk of a double dip has become almost boring, yet another big yawn. In a piece called Double Dip Tedium cellebrating the sixth month anniversary of his call he casts a wayward eye over the US economic prospects:

It’s coming up on the six-month anniversary of my widely despised double-dip call (see my 6 January 2002 dispatch, "Double Dip Alert"). For a while, it seemed as if nothing could be further from the truth. After all, the US economy is now reported to have surged at a 6.1% annual rate in the first quarter of this year. Stubborn to the end, I argued that this growth spike was distorted by a post-September 11 bounce-back and was not indicative of the underlying -- and still fragile -- state of economic activity in the United States. I stand by that view today and still worry that the US economy is exceedingly vulnerable to a recessionary relapse in the second half of this year.

Try as I might, I must confess that I can’t come up with a new and decisive wrinkle to this nightmare........

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