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Tuesday, April 29, 2003

Who is Sir Andrew Large?



This piece has got me worried. Does anyone up there at the BoE know what is going on. If the bubble is about to burst it will need more than a tepid rate cut to stop all heel breaking loose.

Sir Andrew Large, who has been seen as one of the Bank of England's leading "hawks", has raised hopes of an interest rate cut next week by suggesting his fears about rising household debt have abated. In his first interview since taking up the post in October, the Bank's deputy governor said recent data indicated "some slackening" in the rate of growth in consumer spending. He also flagged up concerns about the weakness of the international economic environment. Sir Andrew voted against February's interest rate cut to 3.75 per cent. He broke then with the majority of the Bank's rate-setting monetary policy committee because he was concerned about the risk of a shock to the economy which might make people feel unable to manage their debt. The "impact that the possible unwinding of those levels of indebtedness might have" would complicate the setting of interest rates, he told the FT. But he suggested his fears had since been allayed to some extent. The rate of increase in household borrowing "appears to be slackening, so my concern is somewhat less than it was," he said. He would remain "vigilant" about the potential threat of high household debt, the tone of his remarks suggesting he might be open to the case for another cut. With fighting in Iraq over, oil prices had fallen but "quite significant" uncertainties remained, he said. The UK had been helped by sterling's 5 per cent depreciation since February but recent manufacturing and retail surveys had also been disappointing, he said. The futures market has priced in another quarter percentage point reduction and many economists believe the cut could come at next week's meeting.
Source: Financial Times
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