The Year Ahead

I still think what happens to the German and Japanese economies will be the big story of 2006. My guess is that things will start reasonably well, and maybe run through to Easter, but that the shine will wear off as the year progresses. Meantime the US seems set to slow a little as the interest rate rises start to bite, and I expect China to continue to follow the same path it has been following for ten years now. Even Trichet may have something right, global growth may offer another good performance this year, although the eurozones share of that surely won't be anything like what he would wish to see.