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Thursday, December 15, 2005

Turning Iraq Into A Normal Country?

The Economist today has this:

"Iraqis vote this week for their first full-term government since the fall of Saddam Hussein. Even if the election is peaceful, it will be hard to construct a government that Shias, Sunnis and Kurds can all accept, and harder still to defeat the insurgency and turn Iraq into something approaching a normal country"

It all depends what you mean by 'a normal country' I suppose. If you look at Iraq, with a total fertility rate of 5.1, a median age of 19.43 it would be hard to call Iraq a demographically 'normalised' country. Nor is it a country where the underlying demography suggests you could see a stable democracy arising anytime in the near furture. If only the people who dreamed up the democratise Iraq by invasion plan had read Bo Malmberg's Four Phases of the Demograohic Transition!

As the song says: it's a long winding road.