World Cancer Rates Predicted to Rise

This story seems interesting for all sorts of reasons. The report from the WHO is only stating the obvious: more people on the planet will mean more people with cancer. And secondly, an increase in population age structure will mean a higher incidence of cancer. It is a good example of how changing population structures affect us in ways we don't initially think about. Of course, our individual likelihood remains unchanged, but we can feel we know more people with a cancer related illness. Thus our experience of the world can and will change, in this and many other ways. The recent SARS epidemic is another example. While the origin is still unknown, and its precise nature a mystery, it is clear that with more people using more antibiotics, the chances of viral and bacteriological mutation also increase. And with more older people, our demographic vulnerability to things like flu also increases. Lastly, of course, there is the lifestyle component. Do we really live better than our parents? The WHO claim effectively that we don't: this is the poor exercise and fatty food bit. But life expectancy is increasing so this must only be part of the story. Nutrition in the womb, and in early childhood could also be important. So, of course, could genetics. We really don't know how to put weights on all this. So in the meantime accept daddy's advice: quit smoking, eat less industrially processed food, and start walking to work. (By the way, there is of course no special importance about New Zealand cancer rates, it was just a choice of source. This story is being run everywhere).

The World Cancer Report, released by The World Health Organisation (WHO) yesterday, said rates could rise to an alarming 15 million cases with nine million deaths a year by 2020. In 2000, 10 million cancer cases were diagnosed worldwide and six million people died of the disease. The report blames steadily aging populations, high smoking rates, and an unhealthy Western lifestyle rich in fatty foods and poor exercise. It said the trend could be controlled if people changed their lifestyles. WHO cancer researcher and co-author of the report Paul Kleihues said action by governments and the public now could prevent one-third of all cancers, cure another third, and provide care to the remaining third. He predicted cancer rates in developing countries would also increase as they adopted the Western lifestyle. Christchurch Hospital oncology department clinical director Chris Atkinson said New Zealanders had to focus on cutting smoking rates. "We have turned around the number of men smoking but we still have a problem with women smokers," he said. Dr Atkinson said health planners had to "think smart" to address the fact there would be more people with cancer. The public had to decide where to spend precious health dollars, he said. "We desperately need a cancer control strategy. We need better co-ordination of care, including screening, detection, and palliative." Late last year the Government released a draft cancer control strategy that will overhaul New Zealand's treatment and prevention programme. The strategy plans to reduce the advertising of unhealthy food to children, increase the number of smokefree environments, and develop a systematic approach to cancer screening. New Zealand cancer expert Otago University Professor David Skegg said the cancer epidemic did not mean an individual's chance of developing cancer increased.
Source: Stuff.co.nz
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