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Friday, March 07, 2003

Another Emperor Has No Clothes

When I started this blog I did briedly consider referring to myself (ironically of course) as Chief Economist at Bonobo Land. Now , looking at what the other chief economists get up to (with of course some notable exceptions: Roach, Rogoff...) I'm glad I didn't. This time it is the turn of the OECDs Jeanne Phillipe Cotis to get it absolutely and blindingly wrong. Apart from an obvious lack of harmony with the current US data readings, the tax cut is all about encouraging saving, not current consumption! I've seen it said that we bloggers were discrediting journalism because we don't check our facts, I think the comment would be better directed at some 'expert' economists. Of course, final US growth for 2003 is anyone's guess, that's the 'official' bonobo land view. By the way, does anyone else share the feeling that IMF publications have picked up a lot since Rogoff took over?

The transatlantic gap in economic performance is set to widen, the OECD said on Thursday, as it prepared to reduce its euro-zone growth forecast while maintaining its prediction for the United States. The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development will maintain its 2.6 per cent US growth prediction for 2003 but "significantly" revise its euro-zone forecast in the face of declining investor confidence, chief economist Jean-Philippe Cotis announced. "The difference in outlooks between Europe and the United States may already be getting wider," he said. "In the United States, growth it holding up, with a rise in durable goods orders and a return of investment, which is good news," Cotis said. Promised tax cuts should also help to sustain US consumer spending, he said.
Source:Australia Financial Review

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