Five Steps From Heaven

Unlike Eddie Cochrane, Stephen Roach can count five steps between where we are now and where we all want to be. I, of course, would add a sixth: that the ageing of the US population doesn't represent a drag on growth at home, while ageing in Europe and Japan doesn't place the appearance of rival growth engines beyond the bounds of reasonable doubt.

The dream merchants are hard at work peddling the tale of another economic revival. The magic of postwar relief is widely billed as the catalyst. A veil of uncertainty will be lifted — so goes the argument — prompting businesses and consumers, alike, to unleash the animal spirits of pent-up demand. Just as America led the charge to Baghdad, the US economy is now presumed to lead the way to global recovery. Prewar malaise will give way to postwar healing, and presto — world financial markets will unwind many of the trades that have been in place for the past six months. Just like that. To me, this is a leap of faith of Herculean proportions. While I certainly concede it is possible to get from Point A to Point B, I am hard-pressed to believe that the path will be seamless or expeditious. As I see it, there are five myths to the recovery call of 2003, each of which draws the postwar healing scenario into serious question:

First and foremost, is the myth of another US-led recovery in a lopsided global economy..........The notion of a capex-led recovery in the United States is a second myth of the global healing scenario..........A third myth of recovery is that America has fixed its saving problem, thereby removing one of the key impediments to sustained economic revival....................A fourth myth of recovery is to pretend that the deflationary scare is over..............A fifth myth of recovery is the notion that postwar healing in the US is about to spark an economic revival elsewhere in the world. Unfortunately, the world is still headed the other way.
Source: Morgan Stanley Global Economic Forum
LINK

Nonetheless I'm afraid I still go for the Cochrane original:

The formual for Heaven's very simple
Just follow the rules and you will see
And as I travel on
And things do go wrong
Just follow steps one,two and three

Step one - you find a girl to love
Step two - she falls in love with you
Step three- you kiss and hold her tightly
Well that sure seems like heaven to me
Just follow steps one,two and three