tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35870642011-09-08T21:15:56.737+02:00No-one Gets Left BehindEdward Hughnoreply@blogger.comBlogger20411100tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-81001095437056181692010-07-08T20:49:00.000+02:002010-07-08T20:56:29.934+02:00

As Croatia enters the final stage of its EU membership talks, it is perhaps a fitting moment to review the other half of the picture, namely where the Croatian economy finds itself, and what the outlook might be for a continuing convergence with the requirements of Euro membership. Understandably, EU officials are fairly cautious about the likely shape and progress of the forthcoming talks (the

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-39398698086739621102010-04-18T12:10:00.000+02:002010-04-18T12:11:12.425+02:00

Well, if you read this report from Euractiv, citing unnamed EU Commission officials, it is:"If nothing extraordinary happens, the Commission will give its positive opinion for the accession of Estonia to the euro zone on 12 May," an EU official said, clearing the way for Baltic country to join the euro in 2011.There just one little snag here: that extraordinary, "fat tail" event seems to have

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-32614163282190839522010-04-18T12:08:00.000+02:002010-04-18T12:09:59.629+02:00

This post is basically a follow-up to my earlier Just What Is Going On In Sweden? one, and has been stimulated by an article which appeared in Bloomberg earlier in the week, detailing a number of issues which have arisen in conjunction with the Swedish Statistical Office.The Story So FarBasically, most of us were, I imagine, pretty shocked to learn at the start of March that Sweden had

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-64737739695878255042010-04-18T12:04:00.001+02:002010-04-18T12:05:50.613+02:00

China is self-evidently both a minefield and a potential graveyard for would-be global economists, the sort of place where reputations are made and lost in the twinkle of a dragon's eye, so I think had better tread rather carefully here. However, having duly noted that only fools rush in, here I go...China ran its first monthly trade deficit in six years in March, a development which encouraged

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-13654320470033204062010-01-17T20:13:00.001+01:002010-01-17T20:13:47.788+01:00

OK, just for a change let's start with some math. The increase in a country’s sovereign debt stock to GDP ratio is given by the following formula:where D is the total debt level, Y is nominal GDP, PD is the primary deficit, i is the average (nominal) interest paid on government debt, y is the nominal GDP growth rate and SF is the stock-flow adjustment.Now, if like me, you don't especially love

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-571096315478038932010-01-17T20:09:00.001+01:002010-01-17T20:32:54.802+01:00

“If we look at public-sector debt and interest payments, Greece isn’t doing particularly worse than Italy,” Peter Westaway,Chief Economist Europe at Nomura InternationalTo everyone's relief, Italy's economy returned to growth in the third quarter of 2009, following five consecutive quarters of contraction. But that doesn't make the future look or feel any more secure than the recent past, and

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-39713216517031088932010-01-14T09:38:00.001+01:002010-01-14T09:38:49.674+01:00

Whoever said economists are people who don't ever get anything right?"Economic growth in Germany probably stagnated in the fourth quarter from the previous three months, the Federal Statistics office said. Still, the figure is “surrounded by uncertainty,” Norbert Raeth, an economist at the office, said in a press conference in Wiesbaden today."So German GDP was probably more or less flat quarter

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-91641093830149003802010-01-08T14:11:00.001+01:002010-01-09T08:26:01.391+01:00

Last Wednesday was Epiphany. In Spain it is also a public holiday - Los Reyes Magos - a festival which celebrates the visit of the three wise men who came from the East to find the infant Jesus. Coincidentally on the eve of Epiphany this year the Moncloa did receive a visit from three wise men, although it is not clear whether they came (as tradition would have it) bearing gifts, or whether they

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-9150829788317241322010-01-03T12:08:00.001+01:002010-01-03T13:07:30.269+01:00

I have an interview with Paul Krugman in today's edition of La Vanguardia (in Spanish). Below I reproduce the English original. As will be evident, there are many topics about which Paul and I are far from being in complete agreement. But on one topic we are in complete harmony: the diffficult situation which now faces Spain, the need for internal devaluation, and the threat which continuing

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-69641313635315483762009-12-22T12:36:00.001+01:002009-12-23T17:27:46.182+01:00

"Spain's weaknesses over the developing crisis reflect mainly the reversal of the continuous domestic demand expansion of over a decade, which was associated with high indebtedness of the private sector, large external deficits and debt, an oversized housing sector compared with the euro area average and fast rising asset prices, notably of real estate assets."European Commission assessment of

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-90823169137664263642009-12-07T10:52:00.001+01:002009-12-07T10:56:37.641+01:00

Despite recent optimism about the apparent renaisance of growth in the Japanese economy, and the heightened sense of enthusiasm which surrounds the surge in economic activity right across the Asian continent there are considerable grounds for caution about the sustainability of the Japanese recovery itself.The first of these is to be found in the fact that, as has become plain from the latest

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-17396561886303511882009-11-27T13:20:00.005+01:002009-11-27T17:37:39.988+01:00

Back in the heady days of 2006 some 30,000 cranes, roughly a quarter of total global capacity, were busy whirring away in Dubai. Today most of these devices have either left to find service in other parts of the globe, or lie silent, unused and unloved. In what is only the latest sign of the ongoing property snarl-up affecting the emirate Nakheel, Dubai World’s property developer subsidiary,

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-70394829879801866672009-11-26T15:28:00.001+01:002009-11-26T15:28:27.254+01:00

“Cutting rates by 50 basis points here and there is not going really diminish the appeal of the ruble,” said Manik Narain, an emerging markets strategist at Standard Chartered Bank Plc in London. “In terms of nominal interest rates Russia (at 9% as of 24 November) is still offering the highest yields in the emerging market space and in an environment where oil prices are remaining relatively well

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-85998734938143585342009-11-06T00:13:00.000+01:002009-11-06T00:14:30.518+01:00

Nouriel Robini is not a man who is known for mincing his words. “We have the mother of all carry trades,” he tells us, “Everybody’s playing the same game and this game is becoming dangerous.” There is a “wall of liquidity” sweeping the planet, pushing asset prices ever higher in one country after another. I wholeheartedly agree.Investors across the globe are taking advantage of the ultra low

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-12560585575175171012009-11-03T23:21:00.000+01:002009-11-03T23:23:34.669+01:00

Well, if John Lennon had still been around today he would undoubtedly have entitled his song Norwegian oil, but whatever way you want to put it Norway is back in the news, and this time not because of adolescents who find themselves with no alternative to sleeping overnight in the bath-tub, but rather because its central bank has been put in a position where it has little alternative but to raise

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-37704044235586796992009-11-03T15:18:00.000+01:002009-11-03T15:20:02.161+01:00

A spectre is haunting Europe, but this time it is not the spectre of revolt by the popular masses, or even one of yet another wave of bank bailouts. No, the spectre which is currently stalking the corridors of Europe's most prestigous institutions is one of a Spanish economy which stays on a flatline while Europe's other economies, one by one, start to struggle back to life. And the main reason

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-51464054547491792572009-10-30T00:07:00.000+01:002009-10-30T00:08:58.234+01:00

Finland, we have recently been told, is the world's most prosperous nation, and it is deemed to be prosperous not only in monetary and financial terms, but also in terms of the implicit wealth of its democracy and governance. This striking assessment is to be found in the latest edition of what is known as the "Prosperity Index", an initiative launched by the Legatum Institute, a London-based

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-71860402933457557542009-09-11T19:59:00.001+02:002009-09-14T11:33:06.420+02:00

'As far as I am concerned, this is ... the most complex crisis we've ever seen due to the number of factors in play'Spanish Economy Minister Pedro Solbes speaking to the Spanish radio station Punto Radio September 2008“‘The global imbalances have to add up to zero and so, if the US is going to be less the consumer importer of last resort, then other countries are going to need to be in different

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-84361432904868210502009-08-14T11:02:00.001+02:002009-08-18T15:07:41.424+02:00

The non-biblical concept of original sin, as Claus Vistesen notes in this post, when propounded in its standard Obstfeld & Krugman textbook version refers to the situation where many developing economies who are not able to borrow in their own currencies feel forced to denominate large parts of their sovereign and private sector debt in non-domestic currencies in order to attract capital from

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-1730099271712626792009-08-09T10:29:00.000+02:002009-08-09T10:36:37.881+02:00

According to a once-upon-a-time post on the Economist's Certain Ideas of Europe Blog Edward Hugh “was very cross” about some of the journalism they were serving up over at that prestigious journal. Well, not to worry, since this time he is hopping mad. And the issue which lies behind his wrath is essentially the same one, how to interpret and understand the demographic processes which are

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-58789034021869563052009-07-14T21:36:00.000+02:002009-07-14T21:37:27.478+02:00

This post accompanies my recent piece on Sweden. I have been scratching my head and trying to see what could be learnt from making a comparison between Finland and Sweden. Some of the differences are obvious - one is in the euro, and the other isn't, once can adjust monetary policy and currency values, and the other can't. Others are less so. Finland's goods trade surplus has been declining

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-49566298746279377062009-07-14T21:34:00.000+02:002009-07-14T21:36:35.546+02:00

Basically this post accompanies the Swedish monetary policy and devaluation post I have recently put up on the Global Economy Matters Blog. But first some theoretical structure from Claus Vistesen.As we can see above, the idea is that as median population age rises the current account dynamics of a country change. The last ageing phase of the diagram is purely speculative at this point. Basically

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-24199391756166944192009-07-13T13:25:00.000+02:002009-07-13T13:26:28.674+02:00

The International Monetary Fund this week forecast the recession in Bulgaria would be deeper than it previously predicted. Such a decision should come as no surprise to anyone, since the country's economic dynamics in both the short and long term look extremely unstable, and Bulgaria is now almost certainly headed towards a series of more or less hair-raising roller-coaster rides. Even the

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-45354525156179345442009-06-20T11:49:00.000+02:002009-06-20T12:26:34.592+02:00

Quietly clicking my way through Bloomberg last Sunday afternoon, I came across this:Facebook Members Register Names at 550 a SecondFacebook Inc., the world’s largest social-networking site, said members registered new user names at a rate of more than 550 a second after the company offered people the chance to claim a personalized Web address.Facebook started accepted registrations at midnight

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-52919796877234240532009-06-10T08:38:00.000+02:002009-06-10T08:39:38.309+02:00

"As long as excessive debt is not digested, both monetary and fiscal policies are inefficient. There is not much of an alternative. Either to let the economy collapse, in order to reduce debts, and then use fiscal policy to revive it, or inundate the insolvent economy with public credit, to avoid the collapse, and loose the ability of fiscal policy to pull it out of a prolonged lethargy. Either a

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-24578488459189820792009-06-07T16:31:00.001+02:002009-06-09T18:06:44.608+02:00

The Latvian economy is certaily stuck in a hard and not especially pleasent place at the moment, and really one chart tells it all, since as we see above the local interbank overnight interest rates have been storming upwards and through the roof over the last two weeks. As a result of this unfortunate state of affairs the country has attained a higher profile in the international news media than

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-71708588135129635202009-05-28T13:15:00.001+02:002009-05-28T13:15:24.680+02:00

This is one of the key points I have been hammering here on this blog for some weeks now. There is clear evidence of most economies globally "stabilising" at this point, you could even stretch it to say that the "worst is over" - since I doubt we will go back to the dreadful days of December and January (see German manufacturing PMI chart below) - when it was like someone had given a very sharp

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-72148340375099490472009-05-23T11:49:00.001+02:002009-05-24T12:02:02.512+02:00

As Paul Krugman recently pointed out, one of the central points they made in the latest IMF World Economic Outlook was that recessions caused by financial crises tend to get resolved on the back of export-lead booms, with countries normally emerging from the crisis with a positive trade balance of over 3 percent of GDP. The reason for this is simple, since consumers are so laden-down with debt

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-3323106137264624042009-05-20T12:04:00.000+02:002009-05-24T12:05:20.641+02:00

Iceland, why on earth Iceland? Well, the issue I have in mind concerns the independence and viability of central bank monetary policy (especially in a small open economy like Hungary's) and the role interest rates, and investor sentiment, and yield differentials, and oh yes, I almost forgot, that notorious vehicle so beloved by investors the "carry trade" in producing a situation where financial

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-54700531858623118472009-05-18T12:06:00.000+02:002009-05-24T12:06:43.302+02:00

"For what it’s worth, a key conclusion from the IMF’s new World Economic Outlook is that recessions caused by financial crisis typically end with export booms, with the trade balance improving,on average, by more than 3 percent of GDP. I find this a disturbing result: we’re now suffering from a global financial crisis, which means that the usual driver of recovery will only be available if we can

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-73308442444985313032009-05-14T12:07:00.000+02:002009-05-24T12:08:01.102+02:00

“The 60 billion euros they announced is peanuts for an economy the size of the euro zone,” economics professor and former Bank of England policy maker Willem Buiter said at a conference in Dublin yesterday. “I expect they will announce more or that the recession in the euro zone will be longer and deeper than would otherwise be necessary. They have a record of being somewhat behind the curve.”

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-11456406624093396412009-03-22T10:51:00.002+01:002009-03-22T10:59:28.358+01:00

European Monetary Affairs Commissioner Joaquín Almunia recently, and possibly totally inadvertently, stumbled on a very interesting argument. Here it is:"Who is crazy enough to leave the euro area? Nobody," Almunia said. "The number of candidates to join the euro area increases. The number of candidates to leave the euro area is zero."Reductio Ad AbsurdumNow you don't need a PhD in economics to

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-84587346671986318262009-03-02T13:52:00.000+01:002009-03-02T13:58:04.702+01:00

He's at it again. Last year he was busily trying to worry us all that inflation was set to get completely out of hand among the 16 countries who make up the eurozone. Now the President of the European Central Bank, Jean-Claude Trichet, is hard at it on another tack and is busying himself trying to convince us that there is no credible deflation threat facing these countries. Apart from getting it

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-9026962125935351902009-02-22T21:17:00.000+01:002009-02-22T21:27:17.388+01:00

“It’s 20 years after Europe was united in 1989 – what a tragedy if you allow Europe to split again.”Robert Zoellick, World Bank president, in an interview with the Financial Times(Click On Image To View Video)World Bank president, Robert Zoellick, made a call this week - in an interview with the Financial Times - for a European Union-led and co-ordinated global support programme for the economies

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-79302029062042235892009-02-18T23:40:00.000+01:002009-02-18T23:42:19.479+01:00

Wolfgan Munchau was complaining only last weekend about the extraordinary narrow-mindedness of Europe's economic and political leadership in the face of the current financial and economic crisis, from Ireland in the West to Hungary in the East, and from Greece in the South to Sweden in the North. But more than narrow mindedness what we are faced with is innocence and inability to react, and

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-61649573266295975222009-02-10T10:44:00.000+01:002009-02-10T10:47:28.235+01:00

Keynes’s genius – a very English one – was to insist we should approach an economic system not as a morality play but as a technical challenge.Martin Wolf, Financial TimesThe euro fell again yesterday, by 1.1 percent against the dollar (to $1.2860) and by 1.2 percent against the yen (to 117.52 yen). The change, even if quite large in a short space of time, is hardly dramatic, but what is of more

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-40765445919199482432009-02-07T13:27:00.001+01:002009-02-07T13:34:41.645+01:00

You see, this isn’t a brainstorming session — it’s a collision of fundamentally incompatible world views.Paul KrugmanAs a wise man recently said, failure to act effectively risks turning this slump into a catastrophe. Yet there’s a sense, watching the process so far, of low energy. What’s going on?Paul KrugmanFirst, focus all attention on reversing the collapse in demand now, rather than on the

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-15751874274465550422009-02-01T16:01:00.001+01:002009-02-01T16:37:16.923+01:00

Russia's current woes can be readily summed up in just one single variable - the value of the ruble - and this value, as we all know, is falling. Almost uncontrollably so.The bank’s target will be “very quickly” breached without more intervention, said Gaelle Blanchard of Societe Generale SA in London. “Right now the market is convinced it wants to see the ruble lower,” Blanchard said. “As long

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-61295056946665808852009-01-25T10:18:00.000+01:002009-01-25T11:41:41.215+01:00

The highly open Czech economy is set to slow down considerably, affected by the deteriorating outlook for its main trading partners. Although GDP growth was still solid in Q3 2008, both exports and imports growth slowed significantly. The global crisis is expected to adversely impact the real economy particularly from the fourth quarter of 2008. Overall, GDP is expected to have grown by 4.2% in

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-13847623712824195562009-01-19T17:02:00.002+01:002009-01-19T17:33:03.524+01:00

Well it's pretty clear to me at least that there is now one, and only one, major and outsanding topic towering head and shoulders above all those other pressing and important problems those of us following the EU economies currently find lying in our macro-policy in-trays: the issue of wage cuts. Not since the 1930s has the possibility of such a generalised reduction in wages and living

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-72882124311991750982009-01-19T08:00:00.000+01:002009-01-19T08:01:32.476+01:00

The German economy is about to suffer its deepest recession since World War II according to economics Minister Michael Glos speaking in an interview with the German newspaper Welt am Sonntag due to be published tomorrow (Sunday). Glos said growth in Europe's largest economy is now expected to drop by as much as 2.5 percent this year (and there is still downside risk here). Earlier government

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-73999598429655623372009-01-18T21:28:00.002+01:002009-01-19T08:10:02.322+01:00

This post is partly about Russia, partly about how to follow the present economic crisis on a day to day basis and partly methodological.So Which Are The Worst Affected Countries In The Present Crisis?Obviously the simple answer to this question is "all of them", and in particular all those countries who are members of the OECD. Perhaps that is the feature which best defines what is happening

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-67501866949093231602009-01-07T15:32:00.001+01:002009-01-07T15:34:04.035+01:00

Spain's inflation (as measured by the EU HICP methodology) was around 1.5% (year on year) in December 2008, according to the flash estimate issued by the stats office (INE) earlier this week. This number only offers us an initial glimpse of the final HICP reading, but, if confirmed, it will mean Spain's annual rate of inflation has dropped 0.9% (nearly one full percentage point) in the space 0f

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-8342996515440830082009-01-02T16:20:00.000+01:002009-01-02T16:21:15.012+01:00

And lands in China. Well China isn't quite in Great Depression mode yet, but manufacturing activity - which forms the core of the Chinese economy and accounts for 43% of all activity - is already very close to a technical recession, and phew, it wasn't very long ago that the Chinese economy was registering double digit growth. So the turn around is gigantic. The "close to technical recession in

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-30040860108184509172008-12-25T17:01:00.000+01:002008-12-25T17:07:12.447+01:00

“In Ukraine, the evidence is still that policymakers do not quite understand the seriousness of the challenges they face,”. Timothy Ash, analyst at the Royal Bank of Scotland. “There is a burgeoning economic crisis in the European periphery,” Krugman said on the ABC network Dec. 14. “The money has dried up. That’s the new center, the center of this crisis has moved from the U.S. housing market to

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-59171107479348851352008-12-22T17:04:00.000+01:002008-12-22T17:06:32.585+01:00

With the US Federal Reserve now adopting what is widely regarded as some variant of quantitative easing (QE), and with the Bank of Japan cutting interest rates amidst economic conditions which BoJ Governor Masaaki Shirakawa describes as "severe", perhaps it is worth taking time out to have a looking at some of the earlier experience of quantitative easing in Japan, in order to ask ourselves why

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-40288269774857236662008-12-16T11:07:00.000+01:002008-12-16T11:08:52.185+01:00

Russia's foreign-exchange reserves have been now been declining very rapidly since mid August, and as the money goes so does the faith that the large stock of reserves the country built up during the boom times would be sufficient to see them through any downturn in energy prices. As the money leaves, so it seems does the decade of economic growth and stability which they symbolised. Indeed so

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-37970274350495815352008-12-14T14:59:00.002+01:002008-12-14T16:05:20.452+01:00

In view of Greece's EMU membership, the availability of external financing is not a concern, but the correction of cumulating indebtedness could weigh appreciably on growth going forward. While the risk of transmitting vulnerabilities to the euro area is very small reflecting Greece’s small relative size, large persistent current account deficits would increase the vulnerabilities to a reversal

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-9588012428303872182008-12-07T12:15:00.000+01:002008-12-07T12:16:22.580+01:00

Controversy surrounding the Romanian economy is nothing new, nor, as Manuel points out in his post on the recent election, are Romanian politics strangers to tumult. Nonetheless the intensity of controversy has grown considerably of late, with a wide variety of assessments being offered concerning the likely impact of the intensifying international credit crisis on the short to medium term

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-14923575591846000362008-12-04T13:14:00.000+01:002008-12-04T13:15:10.985+01:00

The number of people presenting jobless claims in Spain soared to nearly 3 million in November, following a 6 percent rise in registrations over October, providing us with yet further evidence, if we needed it, of the gravity of the situation which is now unfolding before our eyes.The Spanish Labor Ministry stated that an additional 171,243 people signed on for unemployment benefits last month,

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-17960439509468696962008-11-24T10:28:00.000+01:002008-11-24T10:29:13.054+01:00

Now this is a very interesting question, isn't it? The only honest answer I can give is that I don't know, and indeed I haven't the faintest idea. The government of Latvia (the Baltic state which is currently most rife with "rumours" about imminent devaluations) works in its own wondrous ways, and neither we (nor Latvia's citizens) have any idea at all how they plan to lift their country out of

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-88687388773692287792008-11-23T17:22:00.001+01:002008-11-24T10:12:44.025+01:00

“Happy families are all alike; every unhappy family is unhappy in its own way”TolstoyWell this is an interesting little fable of modern family life, even if all the families involved may not be ones which many of my readers would normally wish to belong to.As is now reasonably well know Russian private oil company Lukoil is currently making a bid for the shares in Spanish energy company Repsol

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-87722335522280482942008-10-29T13:05:00.000+01:002008-10-29T13:07:35.590+01:00

As every woman who has ever had dealings with a man knows only too well, it is a lot easier for people to make promises than it is for them to keep them. And when Europe's leaders met in Paris on the 12 October, a lot of fine promises (which were all, surely, very well intentioned) were made. The reality of having to live up to them, however, is turning out, as might only have been expected, to

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-20545551160398278072008-10-24T10:26:00.001+02:002008-12-09T03:45:41.210+01:00

Hungarian Prime Minister Ferenc Gyurcsány announced this morning (Wednesday) that the government had reached an agreement with commercial banks intended to protect the interests of those who have taken out foreign currency loans.The agreement, which is expected to be signed early next week, has three key components:1) At the request of the debtor the banks will allow the duration of the loan to

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-8996434914541197262008-10-18T12:32:00.000+02:002008-10-18T12:33:14.624+02:00

Taking my cue from the worthy and well thumbed play-book of the Brothers Coen, I thought every now and again I might follow up all those, long, desperately serious, and highly indigestible posts about how Italy should now be considered to be "No Country For Old Men", with something in rather lighter vein. The highly acclaimed and award winning Miss Iceland Look-alike show is not the only prime

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-42892410516341031282008-10-16T23:09:00.000+02:002008-10-16T23:11:12.485+02:00

Hungary's agony continues with both currency and stock markets falling sharply yesterday while bankers continue to report acute credit shortages. At the same time contagion has started to extend its ugly reach right across eastern Europe, with Ukraine, the Baltics and Serbia (at a minimum) all in ongoing negotiations with the IMF, with the credit crunch which has followed in the wake of the

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-81036689599377403022008-10-14T16:43:00.001+02:002008-10-14T16:43:58.519+02:00

Well, the Icelandic authorities seem to have bitten the bullet, and after some coming and going agreed to accept assistance from the IMF. An IMF mission is on the island preparing a plan which will then be put to the Icelandic government (protocols here are important). Under negotiation are the terms of any possible loan. According to Einar Karl Haraldsson (a political adviser to the Icelandic

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-48431413552975314982008-10-13T15:23:00.001+02:002008-10-13T15:23:51.837+02:00

Well, Europe's leaders have finally bitten the bullet. Faced with what IMF head Dominique Strauss Kahn warned could turn into a global financial meltdown, our leaders have risen to the challenge, at least to a certain extent. The details of what has been agreed continue to remain vague, but obviously I think it is a good FIRST move. More will now almost inevitably follow, but our reluctant

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-55568251402933241342008-10-10T10:14:00.003+02:002008-10-10T12:24:26.790+02:00

Oil prices plunged below $85 a barrel on Thursday, the lowest level in a year, as Opec, the oil exporting countries’ cartel, called an emergency meeting to discuss reducing its crude production to halt the collapse in prices.This morning it is more of the same, and prices plummeted to a one-year low below $83a barrel in Asia as investor fears of a severe global economic downturn sparked a

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-79343380262647505412008-10-06T21:59:00.001+02:002008-10-07T14:36:19.562+02:00

by Edward Hugh: Barcelona“We do not have a federal budget, so the idea that we could do the same as what is done on the other side of the Atlantic doesn’t fit with the political structure of Europe,”Jean-Claude Trichet, commenting last week on the Eupean "summit" in Paris last Saturday``If you concentrate on California or Florida, it is not at all like Massachusetts or Alaska......It is the same

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-23921199998089374172008-09-28T20:25:00.001+02:002008-09-28T20:25:57.458+02:00

"Happy families are all alike; every unhappy family is unhappy in its own way"TolstoyPresident Dmitry Medvedev’s recent decision to inject $20 billion into Russia’s flagging stock markets – which were down nearly 50% from last May at the time - together with the $60 billion odd dollars of support injected into its groggy banking system served to draw attention to the fact that it wasn't only “

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-82428562325835465752008-09-15T18:41:00.009+02:002008-09-26T11:49:49.332+02:00

When will year on year crude oil turn negative, and what will this mean for inflation? An interesting question this one. Last Friday NYMEX West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil for October delivery closed at $101.18 per barrel. Light, sweet crude for October delivery fell $5.47 to settle at $95.71 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after earlier dropping to $94.41, the lowest level since

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-31945312022535948022008-09-05T20:30:00.002+02:002008-09-05T20:35:44.745+02:00

In the photo above you can see European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet welcoming Irish Finance Minister Brian Lenihan to the 10th anniversary celebration of the ECB, in Frankfurt on Monday, June 02, 2008.Time To Stop The Abuse?The ECB and the Spanish banks are back in the news, following the decision by ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet to take advantage of this week's regular

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-24935441924440745362008-09-01T09:42:00.001+02:002008-09-01T09:42:48.366+02:00

Well, since Ugo Bardi recently raised the question of whether Italy had not in fact passed its own historical "peak oil" and "peak mafia" points, I thought it might be interesting to ask what else has peaked in Italy, and what better place to start than with retail sales?Sharp Drop In June SalesItalian retail sales fell sharply in June, posting their sharpest drop on the year in more than three

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-67580518151814189362008-08-27T10:15:00.001+02:002008-12-09T03:45:45.061+01:00

German business and consumer confidence fell more than economists forecast in August, raising the likelihood that Europe's largest economy may now be steadily slipping into a recession.Business Climate Worsens In AugustThe Munich-based Ifo institute's business climate index, based on a survey of 7,000 executives, dropped to a three-year low of 94.8 from 97.5 in July. Ifo's gauge of business

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-20031753216151277772008-08-21T13:47:00.000+02:002008-08-21T13:48:11.175+02:00

Is the first zone wide recession in the short history of the eurozone about to be registered? Certainly the flash PMI estimates for August give the impression that it might. The Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc's composite index came in at 48 after 47.8 reading in July. Any result under 50 indicates contraction. Unfortunately we only get flash estimate breakdowns for France and Germany, but it

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-68878280262719815222008-08-08T11:55:00.001+02:002008-12-09T03:45:46.428+01:00

According to preliminary data from national statistics office ISTAT this morning Italy's GDP fell 0.3 percent in the second quarter compared with the first three months of the year and was unchanged year-on-year (ie zero percent annual growth). Final data and a detailed breakdown for the second quarter will be released on Sept. 10. In the first quarter, GDP rose 0.5 percent quarter-on-quarter and

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-63440401397622388452008-08-06T12:28:00.001+02:002008-08-06T12:38:55.689+02:00

As anticipated on this blog (and in my two posts on RGE European EconMonitor - here, and here) the German economy contracted in the second quarter, possibly by as much as 1% according to the Süddeutsche Zeitung newspaper who somehow or another seem to have gotten an advance glimpse of the economic data which is due to be officially released next week.The Financial Times reports that government

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-32554752536013732832008-08-04T11:58:00.000+02:002008-12-09T03:45:48.623+01:00

August is going to be a long month for Spain. All those people lying on the beaches reading such depressing news day after day. We have three more gloomy inputs since last Friday.Dire Manufacturing PMI in Spain in JulySpain's manufacturing economy shrank in July at the fastest rate ever seen in any European Union survey of the sector conducted by Markit, the research organisation said on Friday.

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-45578394175255688632008-07-30T11:10:00.000+02:002008-12-09T03:45:48.971+01:00

Well, this is now becoming more and more of a nightmare by the day. According to the national statistics office this morning, Spain's inflation adjusted retail sales were down 9.8% year on year in June. In working day adjusted terms this represented a 7.9 percent fall, making it the largest drop on record in Spain, following seven consecutive months of decline.And there is clearly worse to come,

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-2235667193443445252008-07-18T16:47:00.001+02:002008-12-09T03:45:50.210+01:00

Economists set themselves too easy, too useless a task if in tempestuous seasons they can only tell us that when the storm is long past, the ocean is flat againJohn Maynard Keynes'As far as I am concerned, this is ... the most complex crisis we've ever seen due to the number of factors in play'Spanish Economy Minister Pedro Solbes speaking this week to Spanish radio station Punto RadioJose Luis

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-85701935191009759732008-07-15T13:10:00.000+02:002008-12-09T03:45:50.924+01:00

German investor confidence fell to a record low in July as surging inflation and slowing export growth started to cloud the outlook for growth in Europe's largest economy. The ZEW Center for European Economic Research in Mannheim said its index of investor and analyst expectations dropped to minus 63.9, the lowest since the index was first compiled in December 1991, down from minus 52.4 in

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-16689676155658302522008-07-14T13:32:00.001+02:002008-12-09T03:45:51.385+01:00

Reuters are reporting that the listed Spanish property company Martinsa Fadesa have been suspended from trading this morning following the request from the Spanish property firm last week for extra time from the banks to obtain additional credit in order to maintain its refinancing obligations. Martinsa Fadesa said on Friday it had asked creditor banks to waive a requirement that it obtain a 150

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-31451517396336502742008-07-09T16:43:00.001+02:002008-12-09T03:45:51.800+01:00

German exports declined the most in almost four years in May, as a slowdown in some key eurozone economies (Spain, Italy) and a stronger euro curbed demand. Sales abroad, adjusted for working days and seasonal changes, decreased 3.2 percent from April, the Federal Statistics Office said this morning. That's the biggest drop since June 2004.From a year earlier, exports rose 2.5 percent, today's

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-11754655314093129902008-07-07T18:55:00.002+02:002008-12-09T03:45:54.100+01:00

German industrial production declined for a third consecutive month in May, offering further evidence that Europe's largest economy is slowing, and reasonably rapidly. Seasonal and inflation adjusted output was down 2.4 percent from April, when it fell 0.2 percent, according to data from the Economy Ministry in Berlin this morning. That is the largest month on month fall since February 1999.

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-72726792018432117402008-07-01T15:18:00.001+02:002008-12-09T03:45:55.181+01:00

German unemployment declined in again in June, pushing the jobless rate to the lowest level in almost 16 years. The number of people out of work, adjusted for seasonal changes, fell 38,000 from May to 3.27 million, according to data from the Nuremberg-based Federal Labor Agency released today. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate declined to 7.8 percent from 7.9 percent in May, while the ILO

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-57445267575966995742008-06-30T15:18:00.000+02:002008-12-09T03:45:56.558+01:00

The Mexican writer Carlos Fuentes once wrote a novel entitled "The Death of Artemio Cruz". The novel begins with an elderly Artemio who suddenly finds himself awake and lying on his deathbed, gripped by repeated spasms of excruciating pain, and terrified even to open his eyes for fear of what it is he might get to see if he does. After years of debauchery and loose living (shade's of Oscar

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-10262839255586338592008-05-28T09:11:00.017+02:002008-12-09T03:45:58.842+01:00

The Vietnam National Statistics Office announced this week that the country's inflation rate shot up to 25.2 percent in May (when compared with same month last year). Prices increased by an estimated 3.91 percent between April and May alone, a period that saw panic shopping for rice as prices surged. This was the highest month-to-month rise since 1995 according to Statistics Office.As can be seen

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com8tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-25067872693449049962008-05-20T09:40:00.002+02:002008-12-09T03:46:02.116+01:00

Despite the relatively healthy performance turned in by the Japanese economy in Q1 2007, the signs are that the impact of rising food and energy costs and slowing global economic growth (and hence demand for Japanese exports) are now taking their toll. ``We think April-June real GDP is at risk of zero percent growth'' as exports and consumer spending weaken, Takehiro Sato, chief Japan economist

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-52136780728014053122008-05-05T15:28:00.002+02:002008-12-09T03:46:03.718+01:00

Russia's inflation rate rose to an annual 14.3 percent in April, the highest since April 2003, led by rising food costs. The inflation rate rose from 13.3 percent in March, while prices rose 1.4 percent in the month, compared with 1.2 percent in March, the Moscow-based Federal Statistics Service reported last week. Prices have already increased by 6.3 percent so far this year (January - April).

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-18602113818535483822008-04-24T17:18:00.001+02:002008-12-09T03:46:04.351+01:00

Business confidence in Germany (as measured by the IFO index) fell back in April (reinforcing the impression given by the recent ZEW index reading) as record oil and food prices stoked inflation, weakening further already weak domestic demand, and external conditions - and hence the outlook for exports - continued to deteriorate. The Munich-based Ifo institute said its business climate index,

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-78616467095013500502008-04-24T13:28:00.002+02:002008-12-09T03:46:04.969+01:00

Italian consumer confidence rose slightly (but ever so slightly, see chart below) in April - holding near its lowest level in almost four years as an economic slowdown prompts households to cut back on spending. The Rome-based Isae Institute's index, based on a survey of 2,000 families, rose to 99.8 from a 99.0 last month. The March reading was the lowest since May 2004.Rising food costs and oil

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-91996544260398629822008-04-23T13:06:00.000+02:002008-12-09T03:46:18.724+01:00

Well there are no real surprises in this months retail sales data since Hungarian retail sales dropped by 0.2% month on month in February, following a 0.1% increase January, according to data adjusted for calendar and seasonal effects from the Central Statistics Office (KSH). I say this is not surprising since there were only two months last year when the KSH reported a month on month rise. At

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-91647475330634362302008-04-15T13:49:00.005+02:002008-12-09T03:46:20.496+01:00

Following Claus's excellent tour de force yesterday on the various level's of double-bind that now seem to be facing the ECB, I'd just like to chip in to the overall picture with a bit of country level detail. Investor confidence in Germany fell in April for the first time since January on concern that faster inflation, a stronger euro and fallout on exports from slowing economies in Italy (see

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-58197450122346893042008-04-15T09:51:00.003+02:002008-12-09T03:46:20.804+01:00

The FT is running the following this morning :Russian oil production has peaked and may never return to current levels, one of the country’s top energy executives has warned, fuelling concerns that the world’s biggest oil producers cannot keep up with rampant Asian demand.The warning comes as crude oil prices are trading near their record high of $112 a barrel, stoking inflation in many

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-37775686733973627032008-04-09T16:56:00.002+02:002008-12-09T03:46:21.134+01:00

Well how all this is going to end is anyone's guess, but the probability that it will be intears seems to be growing by the month. What I am referring to is the large inflation bonfire that seems to have been lit in Russia, and the even bigger on that is ablaze in Ukraine.Russian InflationThe best thing that can be said about inflation in Russia in March is that it didn't move upwards, since

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-23432493974973568992008-04-02T15:52:00.003+02:002008-12-09T03:46:22.269+01:00

Germany's economy continues to show signs of bucking what in many ways could be thought of as a global slowdown trend. But just how real are the possibilities that Germany can escape from the problems that seem to be affecting many of the world's largest economies? Let's take a look at some of the most recent data.UnemploymentGerman unemployment fell for yet another month in March, reaching its

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-20390394629085961462008-03-15T14:21:00.002+01:002008-12-09T03:46:23.283+01:00

Evidence is mounting that the German economy has found its second wind, and at this point in time is enduring the global downturn rather better than might have been initially expected. Perhaps the first clear indication that the progress of the German economy had stabilised came with the February reading on the EU Business Sentiment Index, which although it remained at rather lower levels than

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-35802565274073938802008-03-10T23:00:00.005+01:002008-12-09T03:46:24.613+01:00

Well the great Baltic economy overheating debate is now gradually drawing to a close as it becomes increasingly clear in each of the three cases (Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia) which way the cookie is eventually going to crumble. Today it is Latvia's turn as we now have a more complete set of data on Q4 2007 Latvia GDP from Latvijas Statistika (following the preliminary release covered here), and

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-50646751969477330402008-03-03T11:11:00.001+01:002008-12-09T03:46:25.427+01:00

Well, this week from France we have two different leading indicators - consumer confidence and retail sales - and they seem to be moving in different directions, which is rather strange to say the least.Perhaps the clearest indication that the French economy may not be holding up as well as it was is to be found in the latest reading for France on the EU Economic Sentiment Indicator. France

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-20388795202309312942008-03-03T10:47:00.003+01:002008-12-09T03:46:25.643+01:00

A number of new data readings have come out from Germany during the last week, and these are leading me to some slight modification of the short term outlook I was painting in my most recent post, although my feeling is that in the mid term little has essentially changed.It is clear that some slight easing in the downward process is Germany is now taking place, and the recent data are too

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-47198176586908552652008-03-03T10:46:00.000+01:002008-12-09T03:46:26.652+01:00

Quite a bit of Spain related data has come out over the last few days, including the latest flash estimate for CPI inflation from the INE, which came in at 4.4% for the second month running.Given that most of the Spanish economy is slowing rapidly this sort of inflation is likely to prove itself to be a real headache, especially over at the ECB. The problem is only added to by the latest reading

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-41762617856552533582008-02-27T13:45:00.001+01:002008-12-09T03:46:27.888+01:00

German market research group GfK's forward-looking consumer climate index was unchanged at 4.5 points in March 2008 from February. Since the forward index is unchanged at a rather low level this is not especially positive news.And since the constant reading is the by-product of a number of significant shifts in the sub-components, it is perhaps worth looking at these in detail. Firstly economic

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-49649055058029189402008-02-22T07:57:00.003+01:002008-02-22T08:48:05.040+01:00

The European Commission released a new interim forecast for the EU economies yesterday. Of particular note was the fact that the forecast significantly reduces the growth forecasts at the same time as sharply raising its inflation estimate The Commission said it was concerned that expectations of steadily rising prices were becoming entrenched in the 15-nation area.My own opinion is that the

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-144486042705944842008-02-19T13:27:00.002+01:002008-12-09T03:46:27.992+01:00

Leslie Crawford had another very useful article in the Financial Times last week (a handy addition to this earlier one).According to Crawford the Spanish banks are accumulating a “war chest” of assets to be used later as collateral to access European Central Bank credit in the event their liquidity needs rise while wholesale money markets in asset backed paper continue to remain closed to them.It

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com9tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-80044833394325270632008-02-18T10:24:00.000+01:002008-12-09T03:46:28.164+01:00

Toshihiko Fukui will retire as governor, after five years at the helm of the Bank of Japan, on the 19th March. His successor may well be announced this week. This morning in the Financial Times David Pilling has a long, and very "fair and balanced" asseessment of Fukui's time at the BoJ, which is more than worthwhile reading for those of you who would like to understand the workings of this

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-57217607426132361052008-02-13T22:18:00.000+01:002008-12-09T03:46:28.571+01:00

Hungary's forint firmed slightly today after standing up to several waves of pressure, settling around what still amounts to a one-week low against the euro. The mildly favourable retail sales data that came out in the US during the afternoon eased some of the pressures on emerging market economies and in the collective upswing the forint managed to get back below the 262 to the euro level. Just

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-296477774744407252008-02-11T12:30:00.000+01:002008-02-11T12:31:11.691+01:00

So are Spains banks likely to escape the pain associated with the global financial turmoil? Well the Financial Times' Gillian Tett obviously thinks they are, and she has been argueing her case in two interesting and valuable pieces in the Financial Times - "Spanish banks spared huge writedowns" (Feb4 2008), and "Why the pain in Spain has mainly been contained" (Feb1 2008). In support of her Tett

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-78323351217173969552008-02-07T09:42:00.001+01:002008-02-11T12:30:35.209+01:00

Leslie Crawford has a reasonably balanced contribution to an opinion editorial in the Financial Times today, where he raises the issue of the excessive optimism of the Spanish government in the face of the growing crisis here. As he notes ...."Only the government predicts Spain will grow by as much as 3.1 per cent in 2008." This view is evidently ridiculous, as far as I can see from the current

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-6413811660931395882008-01-29T14:36:00.000+01:002008-01-29T14:49:25.078+01:00

Unfortunately Hungary's coming correction seems to be getting very near now. Portfolio Hungary reports this morning on the latest readings on the Calyon Risk Aversion Barometer. Caylon reported on Monday that global equity gyrations continue to dictate the direction of emerging market currencies, with risk aversion remaining high and European equities closing lower again on Monday. Indeed many

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com0