tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35870642024-03-13T17:41:45.696+01:00BONOBO LANDNo-one Gets Left BehindUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger2041125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-81001095437056181692010-07-08T20:49:00.000+02:002010-07-08T20:56:29.934+02:00Croatia: On The Brink of What?As Croatia enters the final stage of its EU membership talks, it is perhaps a fitting moment to review the other half of the picture, namely where the Croatian economy finds itself, and what the outlook might be for a continuing convergence with the requirements of Euro membership. Understandably, EU officials are fairly cautious about the likely shape and progress of the forthcoming talks (the Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-39398698086739621102010-04-18T12:10:00.000+02:002010-04-18T12:11:12.425+02:00Is Estonia's Euro Membership A Done Deal?Well, if you read this report from Euractiv, citing unnamed EU Commission officials, it is:"If nothing extraordinary happens, the Commission will give its positive opinion for the accession of Estonia to the euro zone on 12 May," an EU official said, clearing the way for Baltic country to join the euro in 2011.There just one little snag here: that extraordinary, "fat tail" event seems to have Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-32614163282190839522010-04-18T12:08:00.000+02:002010-04-18T12:09:59.629+02:00Lies, Damn Lies And Statistics In Sweden (of all places).This post is basically a follow-up to my earlier Just What Is Going On In Sweden? one, and has been stimulated by an article which appeared in Bloomberg earlier in the week, detailing a number of issues which have arisen in conjunction with the Swedish Statistical Office.The Story So FarBasically, most of us were, I imagine, pretty shocked to learn at the start of March that Sweden had Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-64737739695878255042010-04-18T12:04:00.001+02:002010-04-18T12:05:50.613+02:00China's Recent Trade Deficit: Is What You Yuan What You're Gonna Get?China is self-evidently both a minefield and a potential graveyard for would-be global economists, the sort of place where reputations are made and lost in the twinkle of a dragon's eye, so I think had better tread rather carefully here. However, having duly noted that only fools rush in, here I go...China ran its first monthly trade deficit in six years in March, a development which encouraged Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-13654320470033204062010-01-17T20:13:00.001+01:002010-01-17T20:13:47.788+01:00The Debt Snowball ProblemOK, just for a change let's start with some math. The increase in a country’s sovereign debt stock to GDP ratio is given by the following formula:where D is the total debt level, Y is nominal GDP, PD is the primary deficit, i is the average (nominal) interest paid on government debt, y is the nominal GDP growth rate and SF is the stock-flow adjustment.Now, if like me, you don't especially love Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-571096315478038932010-01-17T20:09:00.001+01:002010-01-17T20:32:54.802+01:00The Italian Lion Sleeps Tonight, And Yet Awhile..........“If we look at public-sector debt and interest payments, Greece isn’t doing particularly worse than Italy,” Peter Westaway,Chief Economist Europe at Nomura InternationalTo everyone's relief, Italy's economy returned to growth in the third quarter of 2009, following five consecutive quarters of contraction. But that doesn't make the future look or feel any more secure than the recent past, and Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-39713216517031088932010-01-14T09:38:00.001+01:002010-01-14T09:38:49.674+01:00Double-Dip Worries In Japan and GermanyWhoever said economists are people who don't ever get anything right?"Economic growth in Germany probably stagnated in the fourth quarter from the previous three months, the Federal Statistics office said. Still, the figure is “surrounded by uncertainty,” Norbert Raeth, an economist at the office, said in a press conference in Wiesbaden today."So German GDP was probably more or less flat quarter Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-91641093830149003802010-01-08T14:11:00.001+01:002010-01-09T08:26:01.391+01:00Mr Bean Meets The Three Wise MenLast Wednesday was Epiphany. In Spain it is also a public holiday - Los Reyes Magos - a festival which celebrates the visit of the three wise men who came from the East to find the infant Jesus. Coincidentally on the eve of Epiphany this year the Moncloa did receive a visit from three wise men, although it is not clear whether they came (as tradition would have it) bearing gifts, or whether they Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-9150829788317241322010-01-03T12:08:00.001+01:002010-01-03T13:07:30.269+01:00Ten New Year Questions For Paul KrugmanI have an interview with Paul Krugman in today's edition of La Vanguardia (in Spanish). Below I reproduce the English original. As will be evident, there are many topics about which Paul and I are far from being in complete agreement. But on one topic we are in complete harmony: the diffficult situation which now faces Spain, the need for internal devaluation, and the threat which continuing Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-69641313635315483762009-12-22T12:36:00.001+01:002009-12-23T17:27:46.182+01:00Why Standard and Poor's Are Right To Worry About Spanish Finances"Spain's weaknesses over the developing crisis reflect mainly the reversal of the continuous domestic demand expansion of over a decade, which was associated with high indebtedness of the private sector, large external deficits and debt, an oversized housing sector compared with the euro area average and fast rising asset prices, notably of real estate assets."European Commission assessment of Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-90823169137664263642009-12-07T10:52:00.001+01:002009-12-07T10:56:37.641+01:00Double Dip Alert In JapanDespite recent optimism about the apparent renaisance of growth in the Japanese economy, and the heightened sense of enthusiasm which surrounds the surge in economic activity right across the Asian continent there are considerable grounds for caution about the sustainability of the Japanese recovery itself.The first of these is to be found in the fact that, as has become plain from the latest Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-17396561886303511882009-11-27T13:20:00.005+01:002009-11-27T17:37:39.988+01:00Total Eclipse At The Heart Of Dubai's WorldBack in the heady days of 2006 some 30,000 cranes, roughly a quarter of total global capacity, were busy whirring away in Dubai. Today most of these devices have either left to find service in other parts of the globe, or lie silent, unused and unloved. In what is only the latest sign of the ongoing property snarl-up affecting the emirate Nakheel, Dubai World’s property developer subsidiary, Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-70394829879801866672009-11-26T15:28:00.001+01:002009-11-26T15:28:27.254+01:00Are Russia's Consumers Getting "Carried Away" With Themselves?“Cutting rates by 50 basis points here and there is not going really diminish the appeal of the ruble,” said Manik Narain, an emerging markets strategist at Standard Chartered Bank Plc in London. “In terms of nominal interest rates Russia (at 9% as of 24 November) is still offering the highest yields in the emerging market space and in an environment where oil prices are remaining relatively wellUnknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-85998734938143585342009-11-06T00:13:00.000+01:002009-11-06T00:14:30.518+01:00The Dollar As A Funding CurrencyNouriel Robini is not a man who is known for mincing his words. “We have the mother of all carry trades,” he tells us, “Everybody’s playing the same game and this game is becoming dangerous.” There is a “wall of liquidity” sweeping the planet, pushing asset prices ever higher in one country after another. I wholeheartedly agree.Investors across the globe are taking advantage of the ultra low Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-12560585575175171012009-11-03T23:21:00.000+01:002009-11-03T23:23:34.669+01:00Norwegian WoodWell, if John Lennon had still been around today he would undoubtedly have entitled his song Norwegian oil, but whatever way you want to put it Norway is back in the news, and this time not because of adolescents who find themselves with no alternative to sleeping overnight in the bath-tub, but rather because its central bank has been put in a position where it has little alternative but to raiseUnknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-37704044235586796992009-11-03T15:18:00.000+01:002009-11-03T15:20:02.161+01:00A New Spectre Is Haunting Europe, A Spanish OneA spectre is haunting Europe, but this time it is not the spectre of revolt by the popular masses, or even one of yet another wave of bank bailouts. No, the spectre which is currently stalking the corridors of Europe's most prestigous institutions is one of a Spanish economy which stays on a flatline while Europe's other economies, one by one, start to struggle back to life. And the main reason Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-51464054547491792572009-10-30T00:07:00.000+01:002009-10-30T00:08:58.234+01:00What Exactly Is Going On In Finland?Finland, we have recently been told, is the world's most prosperous nation, and it is deemed to be prosperous not only in monetary and financial terms, but also in terms of the implicit wealth of its democracy and governance. This striking assessment is to be found in the latest edition of what is known as the "Prosperity Index", an initiative launched by the Legatum Institute, a London-based Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-71860402933457557542009-09-11T19:59:00.001+02:002009-09-14T11:33:06.420+02:00There Is Another Shoe To Drop In The Global Economic and Financial Crisis - And The Focus Will Be On Europe's Perifery'As far as I am concerned, this is ... the most complex crisis we've ever seen due to the number of factors in play'Spanish Economy Minister Pedro Solbes speaking to the Spanish radio station Punto Radio September 2008“‘The global imbalances have to add up to zero and so, if the US is going to be less the consumer importer of last resort, then other countries are going to need to be in different Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-84361432904868210502009-08-14T11:02:00.001+02:002009-08-18T15:07:41.424+02:00From Original Sin To The Eternal Triangle - Lessons From Central EuropeThe non-biblical concept of original sin, as Claus Vistesen notes in this post, when propounded in its standard Obstfeld & Krugman textbook version refers to the situation where many developing economies who are not able to borrow in their own currencies feel forced to denominate large parts of their sovereign and private sector debt in non-domestic currencies in order to attract capital fromUnknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-1730099271712626792009-08-09T10:29:00.000+02:002009-08-09T10:36:37.881+02:00"Advances in Development Reverse Fertility Declines" - Science or Hocus Pocus?According to a once-upon-a-time post on the Economist's Certain Ideas of Europe Blog Edward Hugh “was very cross” about some of the journalism they were serving up over at that prestigious journal. Well, not to worry, since this time he is hopping mad. And the issue which lies behind his wrath is essentially the same one, how to interpret and understand the demographic processes which are Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-58789034021869563052009-07-14T21:36:00.000+02:002009-07-14T21:37:27.478+02:00To The Finland Station And Back AgainThis post accompanies my recent piece on Sweden. I have been scratching my head and trying to see what could be learnt from making a comparison between Finland and Sweden. Some of the differences are obvious - one is in the euro, and the other isn't, once can adjust monetary policy and currency values, and the other can't. Others are less so. Finland's goods trade surplus has been declining Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-49566298746279377062009-07-14T21:34:00.000+02:002009-07-14T21:36:35.546+02:00Sweden's Economy At A GlanceBasically this post accompanies the Swedish monetary policy and devaluation post I have recently put up on the Global Economy Matters Blog. But first some theoretical structure from Claus Vistesen.As we can see above, the idea is that as median population age rises the current account dynamics of a country change. The last ageing phase of the diagram is purely speculative at this point. BasicallyUnknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-24199391756166944192009-07-13T13:25:00.000+02:002009-07-13T13:26:28.674+02:00Cliff Hanging In BulgariaThe International Monetary Fund this week forecast the recession in Bulgaria would be deeper than it previously predicted. Such a decision should come as no surprise to anyone, since the country's economic dynamics in both the short and long term look extremely unstable, and Bulgaria is now almost certainly headed towards a series of more or less hair-raising roller-coaster rides. Even the Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-45354525156179345442009-06-20T11:49:00.000+02:002009-06-20T12:26:34.592+02:00Facebook LinksQuietly clicking my way through Bloomberg last Sunday afternoon, I came across this:Facebook Members Register Names at 550 a SecondFacebook Inc., the world’s largest social-networking site, said members registered new user names at a rate of more than 550 a second after the company offered people the chance to claim a personalized Web address.Facebook started accepted registrations at midnight Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-52919796877234240532009-06-10T08:38:00.000+02:002009-06-10T08:39:38.309+02:00David Takes On Goliath and Loses: The Ferguson - Krugman Exchange"As long as excessive debt is not digested, both monetary and fiscal policies are inefficient. There is not much of an alternative. Either to let the economy collapse, in order to reduce debts, and then use fiscal policy to revive it, or inundate the insolvent economy with public credit, to avoid the collapse, and loose the ability of fiscal policy to pull it out of a prolonged lethargy. Either aUnknownnoreply@blogger.com0