tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post14448604270594484..comments2023-06-19T13:39:00.651+02:00Comments on BONOBO LAND: The Spanish Banks' Growing War ChestUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-86042589483335358092008-02-27T10:45:00.000+01:002008-02-27T10:45:00.000+01:00Hi Detlev,"I've been looking for a way to 'short' ...Hi Detlev,<BR/><BR/>"I've been looking for a way to 'short' the most exposed Spanish mortgage lenders. Any thoughts on that?"<BR/><BR/>Sorry, this is really not my field. But my guess is that the Spanish banks are avoiding going to the wholesale money markets (and hence go to the ECB for money) precisely to try and avoid people doing exactly this. If you are interested in this topic I had Edward Hughhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10384039867580949531noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-89369856822793379232008-02-26T13:43:00.000+01:002008-02-26T13:43:00.000+01:00Hi Edward. Fascinating article of yours. I've be...Hi Edward. Fascinating article of yours. I've been looking for a way to 'short' the most exposed Spanish mortgage lenders. Any thoughts on that? <BR/><BR/>DetlevDetlevhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17274101284366283944noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-43421970504469659042008-02-22T08:31:00.000+01:002008-02-22T08:31:00.000+01:00Thank you for the extensive response, Edward.I st...Thank you for the extensive response, Edward.<BR/><BR/>I start to see some trees in the wood, but many doubts keep lingering. Well, we'll only know for sure when we will discuss this with hindsight. <BR/>I bet even the financial wizards cannot give us a satisifying answer today.<BR/><BR/>Thoughts that linger my mind are<BR/>- the regional banks have been the aggressive lenders in the market, butAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-59384245948438158662008-02-20T10:35:00.000+01:002008-02-20T10:35:00.000+01:00Incidentally the piece from Roubini I just cited c...Incidentally the piece from Roubini I just cited comes from<A HREF="http://news.yahoo.com/s/ft/20080219/bs_ft/fto021920081334359078;_ylt=ApSgj0DxJ2Hg0E6BigcbCYGyBhIF" REL="nofollow"> a much longer article by Martin Woolfe</A>. I don't agree at all with the sentiment that Woolfe is expressing here, and indeed it raised something more than an eyebrow on my part. Basically, this I think shows what aEdward Hughhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10384039867580949531noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-63561256815408982352008-02-20T10:07:00.000+01:002008-02-20T10:07:00.000+01:00Some clarification perhaps. How might this work as...Some clarification perhaps. How might this work as it evolves?<BR/><BR/>Well I don't really go along with the Nouriel Roubini way of seeing things, and I certainly don't think the kind of picture he is painting is a likely scenario for the United States, but the FT did have an interview with him earlier in the week, and the some of the steps he outlines to full blown crisis could be very Edward Hughhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10384039867580949531noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-82998509496574296092008-02-20T09:59:00.000+01:002008-02-20T09:59:00.000+01:00"Recently Moody's published a report on Icelandhtt..."Recently Moody's published a report on Iceland<BR/>http://www.sedlabanki.is/lisalib/getfile.aspx?itemid=5648"<BR/><BR/>Well I may be sticking my nexk out here, when I shouldn't be. But Iceland's medium term outlook seems much more positive to me than Spain's does, providing the price of aluminium stays above a certain level.<BR/><BR/>They have been investing in their future. In Spain people haveEdward Hughhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10384039867580949531noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-15374138477856242652008-02-20T09:48:00.000+01:002008-02-20T09:48:00.000+01:00Hi there Geert,"I must confess that I don't really...Hi there Geert,<BR/><BR/>"I must confess that I don't really fully understand this post."<BR/><BR/>Well first off, and as I mention in the post, I am not an expert on any of this, since my area is macro economics, not banking and finance, and I am just scratching my head, and trying to work things out.<BR/><BR/>I do think,though, that to get the background here you need to go through the posts onEdward Hughhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10384039867580949531noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-8653051601984807322008-02-20T08:26:00.000+01:002008-02-20T08:26:00.000+01:00Recently Moody's published a report on Icelandhttp...Recently Moody's published a report on Iceland<BR/>http://www.sedlabanki.is/lisalib/getfile.aspx?itemid=5648<BR/>At the bottom of page 3 you can read that deposits held abroad are a contingent liability of the sovereign in cases of extreme stress (although the foreign banks need to meet the local regulations). <BR/><BR/>The last paragraph goes: "The first line of defense to the banks from a run Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3587064.post-85680737234314623872008-02-20T08:12:00.000+01:002008-02-20T08:12:00.000+01:00Hi EdwardI must confess that I don't really fully ...Hi Edward<BR/>I must confess that I don't really fully understand this post. <BR/>Aren't the banks simply speculating on the mortgage market? Banco Santander, Buffet and others, each with an own strategy (prior to 2002, municipal bonds, ...), smell money in a stressed market that is always accompanied by opportunities.<BR/>I wouldn't surprise me if they used CB money to speculate , though I've Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com